May was a big downer for the market, but June, so far, has been moving along fine, and the market has regained much of its lost ground. So what’s in store for the last couple of weeks this month?
The remainder of the month will unfold at least two big news events. This week the Federal Reserve meets to discuss the economy and the direction of interest rates. Next week Chinese President Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are scheduled to meet at the G20 summit and possibly resolve or get back on track to resolving the tariff issues ailing both economies. The results from both of these meetings could move the market.
Many market pundits are calling for a move lower in interest rates, but I don’t think we will get it. In my opinion, the Federal Reserve doesn’t yet have a good reason to drop rates and as I’ve discussed before, rate reductions will come only when they are obviously needed but before the economy teeters into recession. Plus, how silly would the Fed look if they dropped rates this week and then next week trade issues resolved and the economy perked up?
A positive resolution to the trade war would be great, but either way I expect the market to react to the news. I don’t know the outcome of either of these events so my suggestion is to hold off on making any big buy/sell decisions unless you’re holding something already overbought or considering buying something oversold. If you’re trading off valuation, what the Mr. Market does short-term doesn’t really matter.